Sunday, April 30, 2006

4.29 White Sox @ Angels

Solid pitching for both teams, which kept the Win Expectancy pretty steady. All 3 scoring plays are labeled and you can see how huge the last out was (obviously).

Probably the B team out there today to face E. Santana. A sweep today + a Bulls win might help a lot of people forget the Bears "draft".





Saturday, April 29, 2006

Thank you Mr. Car Transmission...

...because of you I will be able to watch both Saturdays/Sundays White Sox games!!

Everything looked good when the car got serviced on Wednesday...hmmmm....



Anyways, tonight's graph should be up tomorrow morning, maybe tonight.

Friday, April 28, 2006

4.28 W.S. @ LAA

Just a graph for tonight:

4.28-4.30 at LAA

Failure for 4 games in a row...

I'll be out of town this weekend and unable to graph the games at the Angels.

Sorry.

Thursday, April 27, 2006

4.26 White Sox @ Mariners

Sorry, I couldn't make it through the whole game. So there are no logs or graphs.

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

4.25 - White Sox @ Mariners

Yes, Jermaine, the graph is correct. Neither of your home runs helped the team...at least WPA-wise.

The game got out of hand, early. Looking at both graphs you'll notice that most of the Sox' offensive explosion, at least after Joe Crede's HR, didn't mean a whole lot to the Win Expectancy.

I went ahead and noted the top positive events on the graph. I could have used 4 pt. font, but decided that labeling the 43 HRs hit between the 5th-9th wasn't necessary.

Javier Vazquez, who was once again dominating, led the team in WPA. Followed by Paul Konerko and Brian Anderson. You may be rubbing your eyes at Anderson's bar...but remember that WPA does include fielding and his part in the Lopez/Ichiro double up line-out in the 1st made up most of his WPA.

Tonight's game starts in 10 mins, so I will leave you with one last thought:
Boone Logan earned a save last night and if you haven't seen it, Cheat does a nice job explaining it all over at South Side Sox.



Tuesday, April 25, 2006

4.24 White Sox @ Seattle

...or how staying up to finish logging the game + high winds/rain all night made me miserable all day today.

Speaking of Seattle, special thanks to Starbucks for keeping me going today.

It doesn't take Peter Gammons to tell you that Monday's line-up was a joke. This was pretty much the White Sox B- squad out there. Pablo Ozuna, Alex Cintron and Rob Mackowiak all started. Chris Widger apparently is Ozzie's doghouse if he couldn't pull a starting slot at catcher.

Garland settled down after the first inning and looked good through 7. He allowed the Mariners to tie it up in the bottom of the 7th, leading many to question Ozzie's decision to leave him out there in the 8th. Ibanez had hit Garland hard all game. If we're going to put faith in the bullpen, why not show it?

Three final comments before disecting the graphs...

1. How long until Brian Anderson is playing in Safeco full time?? 3 of his 4 career HRs are in Seattle (yes, I know, sample size). He also made a couple of nice plays in the field. Over at South Side Sox, The Wimperoo, who was at the game, commented that Brian made a couple of hot shots look routine on TV.

2. What happened on the last play of the game? Some might disagree with the next comment, in fact I know at least 2 people who have disagreed with this already. I watched the replay at least 5-6 times and each time it appeared as though Scott Podsednik didn't put it in "6th gear" when charging the ground ball. Also, he showed off the liability that is his arm. I think 95% of White Sox fans knew the throw wouldn't even be close once he got to the ball. Now I'm not saying that Ozuna or who ever else could have been in left would have done things differently, just saying I'm not a big of as fan as some.

3. How many times did Hawk yell "stretch" last night? On just about every ball hit remotely close to the track he started yelling. I know this isn't anything new, but he seemed to have taken it to a new level last night.

If I stay awake I'll have tonights game posted after work tomorrow. On to the graphs:

By far this is the most interesting graph to date. I anticipate most games to look like this, as we're not going to win/lose each game by 5+. Obviously dead even going into the top of the 8th and then a HUGE swing as Ibanez and Anderson each homered.

Top 3 + Events:
1. Anderson's HR, 9th Inning, +.362
2. Mackowiak scoring on WP, 2nd Inning, +.094
3. Thome's Double, 1st Inning, +.084


Top 3 - Events:

1. Betancourt's Single, 11th Inning, -.385
2. Ibanez HR, 8th Inning, -.265
3. Ichiro's Single, 7th Inning, -.119







The Individual WPA graph is pretty self-explanatory:

Sunday, April 23, 2006

Twins @ White Sox 4.23.06

Sunday afternoon Jim Thome finally didn't score, he had a sac fly and hit a couple of high fly outs, but he didn't score. Juan Uribe scored, as did most of the bottom part of the lineup. Even Brian Anderson joined the party with a line shot right over the CF wall.

The story is that Uribe worked on shortening his swing in BP yesterday and apparently it worked. His two HRs we're #1 and #3 in terms of positive gain in Win Expectancy, with Joe Crede's HR sandwiched in between. For those wondering, the Sox are tied for 10th in team HRs at 25.

Until Uribe's second blast on Sunday, the game was actually pretty close. Silva wasn't exactly dominating early on, but the Sox weren't exactly taking advantage of what they were getting. Thome's sac fly in the 3rd was in fact a negative WPA event. If you look at the second graph, the middle of the line up: JT, PK, JD and AJ all had a negative WPA for the game. It's obviously encourging to see the others step up.

The Sox are off to Seattle Mon-Wed. and I'll be happy if I can log at least one of the late games.





Saturday, April 22, 2006

Twins @ White Sox 4.22.06

Couple quick notes about last nights game:
1. After nearly a quarter decade of attending sporting events I finally made it on to the Jumbotron. We made it to our seats just after the top of the first and after Johan Santana made quick work of the Sox in the bottom half, we were the first people shown on the first "Fan Cam" of the night...I can now die a happy man.

2. From our seats it was hard to get the full effect of Jim Thome's HR swing. After they showed the replay 35 times, it was impressive to see the strength he put behind the swing.

3. It was "Dog Day" maybe "Dog Night"? Either way there were no fireworks because of the dogs in the stadium. :Thumbs down

Do yourself a favor and toss on "Grillz" from Nelly while you read the rest of this, just for Jermaine Dye. (His at-bat intro that pops into my head anytime he comes to the plate)

Tonight's game was another pretty predictable game Win Expectancy wise. I'm sure most people could have drawn a similar graph by hand if they watched the game. Another early home run for the White Sox, good pitching from Freddy Garcia and another HR from Thome, just for good measure. Brad Radke and the Twins bullpen got hit hard all night.

Randomness: Not a whole lot else to say. Rob Mackowiak looked absolutely lost in CF on the double by Mauer in the first. Without officially checking, I think this was the first game that Thome's WPA has been below 0.000. Also Boone Logan couldn't locate the plate. At this point, Birmingham or Charlotte has to be more helpful than the work he's getting on the South Side.

Below the normal graph you'll see that I'm trying out a new graph tonight that will plot the White Sox player's individual WPA. If anyone has any suggestions on how to make it look nicer, PLEASE leave a comment. I messed with Excel for awhile and just stuck with this.

Hopefully tomorrow's game will be a bit closer so I have more to comment on. Not that I'm not okay with games like tonight.





Friday, April 21, 2006

Twinkies/WS 4.21.06

Just a placeholder for now. I came across tickets last second and am out the door now. Hopefully Buehrle doesn't finish the game before we get down there.

Thursday, April 20, 2006

Welcome New Visitors and Thank You THT

So today I was in meetings at work from about 8 AM until 4 PM. When I got home I decided I'd finally put up the games from the last couple of days. When I got to the blog I noticed that the daily traffic was up about 25% from the last couple of days. As curious as I was I found that most people were linking in from here: The Hardball Times. I read THT pretty much everyday and having Studes mention/link me in one of his articles is a very cool thing. Thank you to Dave for that.

Dave has been very helpful when I have had questions regarding WPA and his research is what got me started on this blog. Check out his site here if you want to learn more about WPA or wish to download his spreadsheet to log games.

To those of you just checking the site out, please leave some comments, I'm interested to see what people think.

~Shaun

4.19 Revisited

Yesterday was the Javier Vazquez show (yes, I know, against the Royals). Vazquez looked strong through 8 and didn't need much defensive help behind him.

Very little going on again in this game. Juan Uribe's first HR & Seth Elarton's wildness = White Sox victory. As a whole the White Sox didn't take advantage of what Elarton was giving them. Even with the ball all over the place there were a few at bats that left me shaking my head. Sox paitence at the plate has been okay so far, but there were too many PA where they were swinging at the first pitch.

Tomorrow is Mark B. vs. Johan Santana!

Final note: Yesterday's game, a 1:05 PM start, earned a 10 share in the ratings!




Top 3 Plays:

1. Uribe's HR, 5th inning, +.100 WPA
2. Elarton's WP, 2nd inning, +.075
3. Dye's HBP, 5th inning, +.052


Top 3 Players:

1. Vazquez: +.366
2. Uribe: +.078
3. Dye: +.062

4.17.06 Revisited

I'm sure 3 days removed there are not a whole ton of people that care about a blowout against KC, but I'm keeping to my word and posting it anyway.

A solid outing for Jose Contreras, the first of three for Sox pitching in this series. The staff combined for a 1 hitter.

As fun as it is to see Thome absolutely mash the ball, it's always good to see someone else step up (that is if they're going to live by the long ball again). Konerko and Crede took Mays deep in the first and the Sox added a few more runs as the game progressed.

There really isn't a whole lot to say about this game, as you'll see via the graph and players WPA:



Top 3 Plays:
1. Konerko's 3 Run HR; 1st inning; +.197 WPA
2. Crede's 2 Run HR; 1st inning; +.103
3. Iguchi's single; 1st inning; +.022 (seriously, this was #3)

Top 3 Players:
1. Paul Konerko: +.197 WPA
2. Joe Crede: +.105
3. Jose Contreras: +.075 (thanks to the instant offense, Jose didn't have to do much the rest of the game)

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

4/17 & 4/19

Both Monday and today's (WED)games are pretty much ready to be posted, just have to pretty up the graphs some. Tuesday's game wasn't logged, but I'll provide a link to a graph for those that are interested.

3 solid wins with 3 solid pitching performances...against the Royals, yes...but all three starters looked to be hitting their spots and showing good consistancy with their velocity.


Tomorrow I should have some time to get back on track with graphs, comments, etc. Then Friday we're getting MB vs. Johan, which won't need an introduction.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

4.16.06 Jays @ Sox

Happy Easter!

Shortened game = shortened comments.

Dye's HR and Thome's HR added the most to the White Sox Win Expectancy; followed by Hinske's strike out in the 5th and Spod's triple in the first.

On a personal level: Dye, SPod and Thome contributed the most individually, in that order.

Even with the rainy mess that was the top of the 5th, Freddy Garcia was still able to pull a positive WPA... just barely.

KC comes to town tomorrow and the weather looks better.

Friday, April 14, 2006

Blue Jays @ White Sox 4.14.06

An ugly game for almost everyone in a White Sox uniform not named Ozuna or Crede. The Blue Jays lineup killed Javier Vazquez and seemed to capitalize on almost every one of his mistakes. To give them a little more credit, they were even hitting some of Vazquez' best stuff. During and after the game I am sure a lot of people were singling out Cliff Politte for his performance. While he obviously did nothing to help, he didn't hurt the team as much as Vasquez or Brian Anderson. Anderson stepped to the plate with the bases loaded twice and managed to strike out AND hit into a double play. On a positive note, Joe Crede and Pablo Ozuna looked good at the plate...proving that is possible for someone other than Jim Thome to do something with a bat in their hand.
(It should be noted that as I write this Paul Konerko has hit 2 HR off AJ Burnett today, Saturday)

No logs for the holiday weekend; back Monday with the Royals in town.






Top 3 +/- White Sox WPA Events:


Positive:
1. Ozuna 2-Run Double - 2nd inning .179 WPA
2. Konerko Solo HR - 2nd inning .096 WPA
3. Cintron Single - 5th inning .077 WPA

Negative:
1. Glaus 2-Run Double - 5th inning (.253) WPA
2. Hillenbrand 2-run HR - 2nd inning (.166) WPA
3. Wells 2-run HR - 7th inning (.123) WPA

Top 3 +/- WPA - White Sox Players:

Positive:
1. Crede .159
2. Ozuna .116
3. Cintron .088

Negative:
1. Vazquez (.446)
2. Anderson (.212)
3. Politte (.188)

Thursday, April 13, 2006

White Sox @ Tigers 4.13.06

Comments later, maybe. Day game with a lot going on:


Wednesday, April 12, 2006

So It Starts

If all goes according to planned this blog will be used to track WPA for as many Chicago White Sox games as possible. Thanks to TiVo, weekday day games should be tracked here and there. If tomorrow's game @ Detroit doesn't get posted, I'll start with Friday vs. Toronto.